Managing disease containment measures during a pandemic

Throughout the current COVID‐19 pandemic, governments have implemented a variety of containment measures, ranging from hoping for herd immunity (which is essentially no containment) to mandating complete lockdown. On the one hand, containment measures reduce lives lost by limiting the disease spread and controlling the load on the healthcare system. On the other hand, such measures slow down economic activity, leading to lost jobs, economic stall, and societal disturbances, such as protests, civil disobedience, and increases in domestic violence. Hence, determining the right set of containment measures is a key social, economic, and political decision for policymakers. In this paper, we provide a model for dynamically managing the level of disease containment measures over the course of a pandemic. We determine the timing and level of containment measures to minimize the impact of a pandemic on economic activity and lives lost, subject to healthcare capacity and stochastic disease evolution dynamics. On the basis of practical evidence, we examine two common classes of containment policies—dynamic and static—and we find that dynamic policies are particularly valuable when the rate of disease spread is low, recovery takes longer, and the healthcare capacity is limited. Our work reveals a fundamental relationship between the structure of Pareto‐efficient containment measures (in terms of lives lost and economic activity) and key disease and economic parameters such as disease infection rate, recovery rate, and healthcare capacity. We also analyze the impact of virus mutation and vaccination on containment decisions.

Containment Measures and Business Confidence in COVID Times: A Global Study

In this article, we take a global perspective to assess the impact of the exogenous COVID pandemic shock on business confidence. Through a quantitative analysis of 31 advanced and 12 emerging economies over the period from January 2018 to December 2020, we provide a novel investigation of a unique worldwide event, in contrast to the most frequent exogenous shocks, which typically have a more limited local or regional scope. We proxy business expectations with the business confidence indicator or BCI. First, we find that the containment measures for the COVID pandemic have negatively affected business confidence, with the compulsory policies having a greater negative effect on BCI than the voluntary ones. Second, we find positive spillover effects on the local BCIs from the containment measures implemented in neighboring countries. This suggests that business people are not against compulsory measures per se, but rather that they are less inclined to assume the costs of these. Third, we find that while the severity of containment measures has been greater in emerging countries, the negative impact on BCI of these containment measures has been larger in advanced economies.Alternate :摘要：本文采用全球视角来评估新冠疫情带来的外源性休克给企业家经商信心带来的影响。通过对31个发达经济体和12个发展中经济体从2018年1月至2020年12月数据的量化分析，我们对该全球性事件进行了调研。使用企业家的 "商业期待” 来代表其经商信心，我们发现了几个重要结果。首先，新冠防疫措施挫伤了经商信心，措施越严厉，负面效应越大。其次，邻国由于疫情措施对经商信心的挫伤会产生溢出效应，而影响本地企业家的经商信心。第三，虽然发展中经济体的防疫措施更加严厉，但其负面影响却在发达经济体中更大。

Assessing the impact of local context and priorities regarding domestic disease outbreaks and imported risk on early pandemic response: Cross-continental comparisons.

Introduction: Containment and closure policies are effective measures used in the early stages of a highly transmissible global pandemic such as COVID-19 to mitigate the spread and reduce transmissions. However, these policies can have negative impacts on the economy and personal freedom. Governments must carefully consider the necessity of increasing their stringency. Local contexts and priorities regarding domestic disease outbreaks and the risk of imported cases from other countries may vary among different countries, and could influence the decision to increase containment measures. Thus, this study aimed to differentiate the impacts of these affecting factors on the stringency of governmental containment measures through cross-continental comparisons. Methods: This study utilized a zero/one inflated beta (ZOIB) regression model to investigate how domestic epidemic, imported risk, and local context affect government responses to a pandemic. We used a country's weekly confirmed case and death numbers as a measure of its domestic threat. The imported risk was measured using a combination of weekly new cases in each country and the air passenger traffic between countries. Results: The findings indicate that domestic case numbers are a primary concern for governments when deciding to increase policy stringency. Countries with higher development levels tend to implement stricter policies as they can better handle the negative impacts. Additionally, there is an interaction between case numbers and development level, with countries at the second or third highest development level focusing more on domestic outbreaks than imported risks, while those at the highest level have similar concerns for both. Conclusions: We concluded that most countries adjust policies' stringency majorly based on the variation of domestic case number rather than the other pandemic factors and the countries with a high development level tend to implement strict policies since their socio-economical condition could afford such policies. These insights can aid policymakers in improving containment and closure policies for future pandemics.

The impact of containment measures and monetary and fiscal responses on US financial markets during the COVID-19 pandemic.

This paper analyses the effects of containment measures and monetary and fiscal responses on US financial markets during the Covid-19 pandemic. More specifically, it applies fractional integration methods to analyse their impact on the daily S&P500, the US Treasury Bond Index (USTB), the S&P Green Bond Index (GREEN) and the Dow Jones (DJ) Islamic World Market Index (ISLAM) over the period 1/01/2020-10/03/2021. The results suggest that all four indices are highly persistent and exhibit orders of integration close to 1. A small degree of mean reversion is observed only for the S&P500 under the assumption of white noise errors and USTB with autocorrelated errors; therefore, market efficiency appears to hold in most cases. The mortality rate, surprisingly, seems to have affected stock and bond prices positively with autocorrelated errors. As for the policy responses, both the containment and fiscal measures had a rather limited impact, whilst there were significant announcement effects which lifted markets, especially in the case of monetary announcements. There is also evidence of a significant, positive response to changes in the effective Federal funds rate, which suggests that the financial industry, mainly benefiting from interest rises, plays a dominant role.

Resilience, endogenous policy responses to COVID-19, and their impacts on farm performance.

Policy measures aimed at containing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic had unintended consequences on economic activities globally. In this study, we isolate and investigate the short-term partial impacts of six such measures on the farm and nonfarm incomes of agricultural households and examine the related resilience factors. Using Nigeria as a case study, we find that the COVID containment measures had mixed effects on farm and non-farm incomes in the short run. These varying effects are due to households' resilience and vulnerability factors, including land size, wealth, income diversification, involvement in processing activities, and reliance on hired labor. Our findings highlight the need for more targeted health crisis containment measures which consider the uniqueness, diversity, and regional heterogeneity of agriculture, especially the potential implications for farm viability.

Predictors of changing patterns of adherence to containment measures during the early stage of COVID-19 pandemic: an international longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Identifying common factors that affect public adherence to COVID-19 containment measures can directly inform the development of official public health communication strategies. The present international longitudinal study aimed to examine whether prosociality, together with other theoretically derived motivating factors (self-efficacy, perceived susceptibility and severity of COVID-19, perceived social support) predict the change in adherence to COVID-19 containment strategies. METHOD: In wave 1 of data collection, adults from eight geographical regions completed online surveys beginning in April 2020, and wave 2 began in June and ended in September 2020. Hypothesized predictors included prosociality, self-efficacy in following COVID-19 containment measures, perceived susceptibility to COVID-19, perceived severity of COVID-19 and perceived social support. Baseline covariates included age, sex, history of COVID-19 infection and geographical regions. Participants who reported adhering to specific containment measures, including physical distancing, avoidance of non-essential travel and hand hygiene, were classified as adherence. The dependent variable was the category of adherence, which was constructed based on changes in adherence across the survey period and included four categories: non-adherence, less adherence, greater adherence and sustained adherence (which was designated as the reference category). RESULTS: In total, 2189 adult participants (82% female, 57.2% aged 31-59 years) from East Asia (217 [9.7%]), West Asia (246 [11.2%]), North and South America (131 [6.0%]), Northern Europe (600 [27.4%]), Western Europe (322 [14.7%]), Southern Europe (433 [19.8%]), Eastern Europe (148 [6.8%]) and other regions (96 [4.4%]) were analyzed. Adjusted multinomial logistic regression analyses showed that prosociality, self-efficacy, perceived susceptibility and severity of COVID-19 were significant factors affecting adherence. Participants with greater self-efficacy at wave 1 were less likely to become non-adherence at wave 2 by 26% (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.74; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.77; P < .001), while those with greater prosociality at wave 1 were less likely to become less adherence at wave 2 by 23% (aOR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.79; P = .04). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that in addition to emphasizing the potential severity of COVID-19 and the potential susceptibility to contact with the virus, fostering self-efficacy in following containment strategies and prosociality appears to be a viable public health education or communication strategy to combat COVID-19.

The state of exception and its effects on civil liberties in Italy during the COVID-19 crisis

The ongoing global pandemic represents an unprecedented challenge for contemporary political systems. This chapter focuses on the impacts of the pandemic containment measures and the consequent considerable restrictions to constitutional rights and civil liberties. It defines the essential elements of State of Exception (SoE) both in general and in the Italian context. The chapter explores some of the features that characterize the declaration and implementation of SoE on a global level with a focus on the COVID-19 emergency. It analyzes, respectively, the regulation and implementation of SoE and containment measures in Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The chapter explains the effects of SoE and containment measures on civil liberties. It also explains the main critical aspects of SoE in Italy and some implications relevant to both research and policymaking. © 2023 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Right and yet wrong: a politico-economic perspective on Germany's early COVID-19 policy

Applying a spatio-temporal endemic–epidemic forecasting model, we evaluate different perspectives on the adequacy of COVID-19 containment policies. Using Germany's early containment policy as an example, we show that containment policies judged as rational based on the real-time perspective of policymakers may be deemed unnecessary or ineffective in ex-post evaluations. We also demonstrate that one-size-fits-all policies implemented in Germany early in the pandemic are likely suboptimal. © 2023 Regional Studies Association.

Using a hybrid simulation model to assess the impacts of combined COVID-19 containment measures in a high-speed train station

In this study, we present a hybrid agent-based model (ABM) and discrete event simulation (DES) framework where ABM captures the spread dynamics of COVID-19 via asymptomatic passengers and DES captures the impacts of environmental variables, such as service process capacity, on the results of different containment measures in a typical high-speed train station in China. The containment and control measures simulated include as-is (nothing changed) passenger flow control, enforcing social distancing, adherence level in face mask-wearing, and adding capacity to current service stations. These measures are evaluated individually and then jointly under a different initial number of asymptomatic passengers. The results show how some measures can consolidate the outcomes for each other, while combinations of certain measures could compromise the outcomes for one or the other due to unbalanced service process configurations. The hybrid ABM and DES models offer a useful multi-function simulation tool to help inform decision/policy makers of intervention designs and implementations for addressing issues like public health emergencies and emergency evacuations. Challenges still exist for the hybrid model due to the limited availability of simulation platforms, extensive consumption of computing resources, and difficulties in validation and optimisation. © 2023 The Operational Research Society.

A Sir Model for Viral Growth of Coronavirus: A System Dynamics Approach

In this paper, a system dynamics model depicts the viral growth of COVID-19 at an exponential rate. The outbreak of Corona virus was started from the Feb 26, 2020 when the first case was reported in Pakistan. Local bodies and law enforcing agencies had taken initial preventive measures to restrict the COVID-19 to a particular locality but all in vain. The infected people were increasing every day rising the stocks of recoveries and deaths. Numbers of infected people were alarming and a need was felt to develop the model to calculate the existing reproduction number and transmission rate and highlight its varied values in coming days. People-oriented measures and government-based policies must be explored to fight against this deadly disease. This paper aims the development of epidemic model using the system dynamic framework on simulation software STELLA. The objective of the research is to experiment with the model to replicate the progression of the communicable disease and probe the multiple combinations of the people-based and government-based measures to reduce its spread. The containment measures are of two types;people-based measures and government-based measures and both directly affect the reproduction number and infection growth fraction for mitigating the spread of deadly coronavirus. Combined efforts of public and government can combat this pandemic. Reduced degree of reproduction number and infection growth fraction are the key metrics to judge and evaluate the effectiveness of containment measures. This research points to more holistic combination of public and government-oriented measures that play the vital role to flatten the curve and reduce its spread affecting the reproduction number. Simulation results have been traced to replicate the real-life settings against four combinations of containment measures in tabular form and graphical form. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

The role of civic capital on vaccination.

Can civic-minded individuals fight against a pandemic? In this paper, we show that civic capital plays an important role when assessing the level of compliance with COVID-19 vaccination recommendations. Analyzing data on a large sample of municipalities from the Italian region of Lombardy, we show that the share of vaccinated individuals is significantly higher in municipalities with higher pre-determined levels of civic capital. These findings are robust to the possibility of spatial spillovers across neighboring municipalities. Our findings contribute to the existing evidence highlighting the importance of individual contributions and civic capital as important behavioral determinants affecting the containment of infectious diseases.

Differential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on primary care utilization related to common mental disorders in four European countries: A retrospective observational study.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is commonly believed to have increased common mental disorders (CMD, i.e., depression and anxiety), either directly due to COVID-19 contractions (death of near ones or residual conditions), or indirectly by increasing stress, economic uncertainty, and disruptions in daily life resulting from containment measure. Whereas studies reporting on initial changes in self-reported data frequently have reported increases in CMD, pandemic related changes in CMD related to primary care utilization are less well known. Analyzing time series of routinely and continuously sampled primary healthcare data from Sweden, Norway, Netherlands, and Latvia, we aimed to characterize the impact of the pandemic on CMD recorded prevalence in primary care. Furthermore, by relating these changes to country specific time-trajectories of two classes of containment measures, we evaluated the differential impact of containment strategies on CMD rates. Specifically, we wanted to test whether school restrictions would preferentially affect age groups corresponding to those of school children or their parents. Methods: For the four investigated countries, we collected time-series of monthly counts of unique CMD patients in primary healthcare from the year 2015 (or 2017) until 2021. Using pre-pandemic timepoints to train seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, we predicted healthcare utilization during the pandemic. Discrepancies between observed and expected time series were quantified to infer pandemic related changes. To evaluate the effects of COVID-19 measures on CMD related primary care utilization, the predicted time series were related to country specific time series of levels of social distancing and school restrictions. Results: In all countries except Latvia there was an initial (April 2020) decrease in CMD care prevalence, where largest drops were found in Sweden (Prevalence Ratio, PR = 0.85; 95% CI 0.81-0.90), followed by Netherlands (0.86; 95% CI 0.76-1.02) and Norway (0.90; 95% CI 0.83-0.98). Latvia on the other hand experienced increased rates (1.25; 95% CI 1.08-1.49). Whereas PRs in Norway and Netherlands normalized during the latter half of 2020, PRs stayed low in Sweden and elevated in Latvia. The overall changes in PR during the pandemic year 2020 was significantly changed only for Sweden (0.91; 95% CI 0.90-0.93) and Latvia (1.20; 95% CI 1.14-1.26). Overall, the relationship between containment measures and CMD care prevalence were weak and non-significant. In particular, we could not observe any relationship of school restriction to CMD care prevalence for the age groups best corresponding to school children or their parents. Conclusion: Common mental disorders prevalence in primary care decreased during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in all countries except from Latvia, but normalized in Norway and Netherlands by the latter half of 2020. The onset of the pandemic and the containment strategies were highly correlated within each country, limiting strong conclusions on whether restriction policy had any effects on mental health. Specifically, we found no evidence of associations between school restrictions and CMD care prevalence. Overall, current results lend no support to the common belief that the pandemic severely impacted the mental health of the general population as indicated by healthcare utilization, apart from in Latvia. However, since healthcare utilization is affected by multiple factors in addition to actual need, future studies should combine complementary types of data to better understand the mental health impacts of the pandemic.

Coming out of the pandemic: What have we learned and what should we learn?

In this editorial, we reviewed the articles collected in the special issue "Economics of Pandemic Disease” along with other relevant literature. We found that the pandemic has had a devastating impact on the economy as a whole and on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and private firms in particular, which may have deepened the economic inequality and impeded poverty reduction in China. The pandemic also resulted in substantial damage to the mental health and well-being of the Chinese population, with a disproportionate impact on minorities, including the female and the illiterate. We also examined the available evidence regarding the effectiveness of China's policy response to the COVID pandemic, which suggested that China's zero-Covid policy succeeded in stabilizing its economy and maintaining a safe environment in earlier phases of the pandemic, but hardly achieved a balance between disease control and economic growth in the later stage when less fatal but more transmissive coronavirus variants emerged. Lastly, we discussed policy options that China may take to protect the health of its people and avoid a potentially substantial loss of lives during the transition toward the post-pandemic new normal, which include prioritizing the timely administration of effective vaccines among the elderly and vulnerable populations, improving public communications regarding when and how to seek medical help, and strengthening the surge capacity of the healthcare systems, especially in less developed regions.

From #iononriapro to #ioapro: analysing hashtag activism in the Italian restaurant Twittersphere during the 2020 lockdown

Purpose: In this article, the authors analyse the impact of the 2020 lockdown and the subsequent measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Italy in the hospitality industry by looking at the social demands brought forward by the restaurant sector. Design/methodology/approach: To analyse social demands, the authors choose Twitter as an observation point using two hashtags as keywords to scratch the data: #iononriapro and #ioapro, which correspond to two different instances conveyed by the same subject: the restaurant sector. The instances linked to the hashtags produced different levels of engagement and penetration within the social structure and digital platform. To analyse the first block of data linked to the first hashtag-flag #iononriapro, the authors used content analysis. To analyse the second and third block of data linked to the hashtag-flag #ioapro, the authors used an automatic procedure, emotional text mining. Findings: The analysis procedures allow us to reconstruct the positioning of the topics of closures and reopenings due to lockdown in this sector and to identify two explanatory dimensions: structural and affective, which explain the tension that has emerged between the State and the restaurant sector around COVID-related closures. Originality/value: The study's findings not only contribute to the current understandings of the birth, transformation and penetration of social issues by the restaurant sector over the specific period linked to the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures imposed for its containment but are also valuable to analyse the dynamics through which Twitter hashtags and the social issues they represent find strength or lose interest in the public. © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Impact of containment measures on community mobility, daily confirmed cases, and mortality in the third wave of COVID-19 epidemic in Myanmar.

In Myanmar, third wave of COVID-19 epidemic began with a surge of confirmed cases in the last week of May 2021. The laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths distinctly increased within 9 weeks. The government and the Ministry of Health adopted containment measures to flatten the peak of the epidemic and to suppress the disease transmission. The strictly containment measures: stay-at-home restrictions, school closure, and office closure have reduced the community mobility, confirmed cases and mortality. Therefore, the timely containment measures implemented by the government were important to reduce the transmission as observed in the third wave of COVID-19 epidemic in Myanmar.

Statistical model for factors correlating with COVID-19 deaths.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused major disruption in societies globally. Our aim is to understand, what factors were associated with the impact of the pandemic on death rates. This will help countries to better prepare for and respond in future pandemics. Methods: We modeled with a linear mixed effect model the impact of COVID-19 with the dependent variable "Daily mortality change" (DMC) with country features variables and intervention (containment measurement) data. We tested both country characteristics consisting of demographic, societal, health related, healthcare system specific, environmental and cultural feature as well as COVID-19 specific response in the form of social distancing interventions. Results: A statistically significant country feature was Geert Hofstede's masculinity, i.e., the extent to which the use of force is endorsed socially, correlating positively with a higher DMC. The effects of different interventions were stronger that those of country features, particularly cancelling public events, controlling international travel and closing workplaces. Conclusion: Social distancing interventions and the country feature: Geert Hofstede's masculinity dimension had a significant impact on COVID-19 mortality change. However other country features, such as development and population health did not show significance. Thus, the crises responders and scholars could revisit the concept and understanding of preparedness for and response to pandemics.

A cross-country comparison of Covid-19 containment measures and their effects on the epidemic curves.

BACKGROUND: European countries are still searching to eliminate or contain the Covid-19 pandemic. A variety of approaches have achieved different levels of success in limiting the spread of the disease early and preventing avoidable deaths. Governmental policy responses may explain these differences and this study aims to describe evidence about the effectiveness of containment measures throughout the course of the pandemic in five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK). METHODS: The research approach adopted consisted of three steps: 1) Build a Containment Index (C.I.) that considers nine parameters to make an assessment on the strength of measures; 2) Develop dynamic epidemiological models for forecasting purposes; 3) Predict case numbers by assuming containment measures remain constant for a period of 30 days. RESULTS: Our analysis revealed that in the five European countries we compared, the use of different approaches definitively affected the effectiveness of containment measures for the Covid-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: The evidence found in our research can be useful to inform policy makers' decisions when deciding to introduce or relax containment measures and their timing, both during the current pandemic or in addressing possible future health crises.

Investigating the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on the Economy and the Corresponding Entrepreneurship Support Measures in Europe.

Covid-19 pandemic continues to cause great losses in human lives and adverse consequences in many sectors of the EU economy. The aim of the paper is to evaluate the effects of the pandemic in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), in culture - entertainment industry and to investigate the effectiveness of the corresponding entrepreneurship support measures have been taken. This review was conducted based on related articles that were published during the years 2020-2021, using the online databases of Google Scholar, Science Direct, Elsevier, PubMed, OECD, IOBE. A total of 16 eligible studies were included in this literature review. EU authorities have launched measures, setting up policy and funding instruments to mobilize the economy. The impact of these measures is of great significance for many EU countries and sectors. However, measures taken for small and medium-sized enterprises, tourism and culture were not evaluated effectively to get the sectors back on track. Those measures were effective in short term and were insufficient to boost the recovery of the EU economy in long term. Since Covid-19 still exists, the fear of a recurrence is fed back. Long-term support measures need to be re-evaluated and new strategies must be established, that will set, sustainability criteria for companies, according to future investment and development policies.

The Relationship Between Community Adherence to COVID-19 Containment Measures and the Wellbeing of Older Adults in Rural Kenya.

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted lives globally but disproportionately affected older adults due to their increased vulnerability to severe illness and higher mortality. To protect older adults from infection, community members in rural Kenya have ensured enhanced adherence to COVID-19 containment measures. However, while restricted social contact is highly recommended in the control of COVID-19 infection, limited research exists on its effect on the psychosocial wellbeing of older adults. This study therefore assessed the relationship between community adherence to COVID-19 containment measures and the overall wellbeing of older adults. Nyeri County in Central Kenya was selected for the study and all adults aged 70 years and above targeted. Snowball sampling was used to collect data from a sample of 360 respondents. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were used in data analysis. The study established a significant inverse relationship between the level of community adherence to COVID-19 protocols and the wellbeing of older adults. Furthermore, the wellbeing of most older adults had deteriorated during the pandemic, with older married women with higher incomes being less affected. The study concluded that although the COVID-19 pandemic had affected everyone, effective containment is a multi-dimensional issue that requires targeted interventions.

Comparison of Public Health Containment Measures of COVID-19 in China and India.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to make a comparative analysis of the public health containment measures between China and India, explore the causes of the serious COVID-19 epidemic in India, and eventually to improve global infectious disease control. METHODS: We extracted publicly available data from official websites, summarized the containment measures implemented in China and India, and assessed their effectiveness. RESULTS: China has responded to the COVID-19 outbreak with strict public health containment measures, including lockdown of Wuhan city, active case tracing, and large-scale testing, ultimately preventing a large increase in daily new cases and maintaining a low mortality rate per million population (as of May 5, 2021, daily new cases were 11 and mortality rate per million population was 3.37). India, although imposing a national lockdown to control the pandemic, has not implemented strict testing, tracking, and quarantine measures due to the overburdened healthcare system. Combined with massive lockdown, it has accelerated human mobility and exacerbated the epidemic, resulting in a rapid increase in daily new cases and a high mortality rate per million population (as of May 5, 2021, daily new cases were 412,431 and mortality rate per million population was 166.79). CONCLUSION: China and India implemented public health containment measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic based on their national situations. Meanwhile, daily new cases and mortality of COVID-19 also were affected by environmental and socioeconomic. Countries make a comprehensive strategy not only in terms of the biological, pharmaceutical, health, and sanitation sectors but also based on sustainability science and environmental science.